The Gartner Hype Cycle visualizes the maturity, implementation, and overall effect of technologies. Businesses can use the Gartner Hype Cycle to stay up-to-date on the latest technologies and trends, assess the maturity of technologies, prioritize investments, evaluate the potential risks and rewards of technologies, and create a roadmap for technology adoption.
Blockbuster was once a dominant player in the video rental industry. However, the company failed to embrace the shift towards online streaming of movies and TV shows. This was in large part due to Blockbuster’s reluctance to change its business model and embrace digital streaming on time, which allowed competitors such as Netflix to establish a strong presence in the market. Blockbuster’s failure to keep up with the changing technological landscape ultimately led to its decline and bankruptcy.
Kodak was already one of the pioneers in the digital camera industry, while its competitors were simply focused on their traditional film-based photography businesses. However, the technology did not mature for a long time. But when it did, Kodak failed to fully embrace digital photography because of earlier disappointments. As a result, they were overtaken by companies that embraced digital photography and were better equipped to compete in the new market, leading to Kodak’s decline.
These and many other examples show that being too early adopting a new technology is as detrimental as it is being too late. In this blog post I’d like to introduce a tool that can often help to determine when the time is right to invest in an emerging technology.
Understanding the Gartner Hype Cycle
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a graphical representation of the maturity, adoption, and societal impact of specific technologies. It is used to evaluate and understand the potential of emerging technologies and to identify the most promising ones for further investment.
The Hype Cycle model is based on the idea that there is a predictable pattern of adoption that technologies follow as they mature. According to Gartner, this pattern can be divided into five phases:
- Innovation Trigger: This is the point at which a new technology is first introduced and generates significant press and buzz.
- Peak of Inflated Expectations: At this stage, people become overly excited about the potential of the technology and begin to make unrealistic claims about its capabilities.
- Trough of Disillusionment: As the technology fails to meet the inflated expectations, people become disillusioned and lose interest in it.
- Slope of Enlightenment: As the technology is more fully understood, it becomes clearer which applications are most useful for it.
- Plateau of Productivity: The technology becomes widely adopted and generates a significant impact on society.
In order to arrive at the graphical representation of the Gartner Hype Cycle these five phases are depicted on a graph with the horizontal axis representing the passage of time, and the vertical axis representing the level of adoption or maturity of the technology.
The Hype Cycle model is intended to help organizations make informed decisions about which technologies to invest in and when to do so. It is important to recognize that the Hype Cycle is a model and not a precise prediction of the future, and that individual technologies may follow different adoption patterns.
The Trigger Event
In addition to the five phases, the Gartner Hype Cycle model also identifies a “Trigger Event” for each technology or trend. This is the event that initiates the cycle, such as the introduction of a new technology or the emergence of a significant market trend. The Trigger Event helps to explain why a technology or trend is entering the Hype Cycle at a particular point in time.
The Trigger Event may be determined by Gartner analysts based on a variety of factors, such as the significance of the event, the level of media attention it receives, and its potential impact on the market. Gartner analysts may also consider other factors, such as the timing of the event in relation to the maturity of the technology and the level of interest in the technology among organizations and consumers.
It is important to note that the Trigger Event is a subjective determination and may vary depending on the perspective of the analyst or organization. Different organizations may have different views on what constitutes a significant event or trend, and the Trigger Event may not be the same for all technologies or trends.
The Benefit Rating
Gartner also includes a “Benefit Rating” for each technology or trend. This is a measure of the potential societal or business impact of the technology, based on its capabilities and potential uses. The Benefit Rating helps organizations to understand the potential value of a technology and to prioritize their investments accordingly.
Gartner does not publicly disclose the specific method it uses to calculate the Benefit Rating for technologies and trends on the Hype Cycle. The Benefit Rating is a measure of the potential societal or business impact of a technology, based on its capabilities and potential uses. It is intended to help organizations understand the potential value of a technology and prioritize their investments accordingly.
The Benefit Rating is likely based on a combination of factors, such as the technology’s ability to solve important problems, the size and growth potential of the market it serves, and the likelihood that it will be widely adopted. It may also take into account the potential risks and challenges associated with the technology.
It is important to note that the Benefit Rating is a subjective assessment and should be considered in the context of an organization’s specific needs and goals. It is not a definitive measure of a technology’s value, and organizations should carefully evaluate the benefits and risks of any technology before making investment decisions.
How to Use the Gartner Hype Cycle
The Gartner Hype Cycle is used to evaluate and understand the potential of emerging technologies and to identify the most promising ones for further investment. There are several ways in which businesses can use the Gartner Hype Cycle to inform their technology strategy and decision-making:
- Identifying emerging technologies: The Hype Cycle can help businesses stay up-to-date on the latest technologies and trends and understand which ones are worth paying attention to.
- Assessing the maturity of technologies: By understanding the phase of the Hype Cycle that a technology is in, businesses can get a sense of how mature and stable the technology is, and whether it is ready for widespread adoption.
- Prioritizing investments: The Benefit Rating and the phase of the Hype Cycle can help businesses prioritize their investments in emerging technologies and allocate resources accordingly.
- Evaluating the potential risks and rewards of technologies: By understanding the potential benefits and risks of a technology, businesses can make more informed decisions about whether to invest in it.
- Creating a roadmap for technology adoption: By tracking the Hype Cycle for specific technologies, businesses can create a roadmap for when to introduce those technologies into their operations.
It is important to remember that individual technologies may follow different adoption patterns. Businesses should use the Hype Cycle as one tool among many in their technology decision-making process.
Examples of How the Gartner Hype Cycle Was Used
One example of a technology that has been tracked on the Gartner Hype Cycle is artificial intelligence (AI). AI is a broad term that refers to a range of technologies and techniques used to enable computers to perform tasks that would normally require human intelligence, such as learning, problem-solving, and decision-making.
According to Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2020, AI has passed through several phases of the Hype Cycle over the past few decades. In the early 1990s, AI was in the Innovation Trigger phase, as researchers and companies began to explore the potential applications of the technology. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, AI entered the Peak of Inflated Expectations, as hype around the technology’s potential reached a peak.
However, as the technology failed to meet the inflated expectations, it entered the Trough of Disillusionment in the late 2000s. In the 2010s, AI began to emerge from the trough and enter the Slope of Enlightenment, as the technology matured and its practical applications became clearer. Today, AI is considered to be on the Plateau of Productivity, as it is widely adopted and has a significant impact on society.
Another example of a technology that has been tracked on the Gartner Hype Cycle is blockchain. Blockchain is a decentralized, distributed database that uses cryptography to secure and verify transactions. It is the technology that underlies cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, but it has potential applications in a wide range of industries, including finance, supply chain management, and healthcare.
According to Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Blockchain Technologies, 2020, blockchain was in the Innovation Trigger phase in the early 2010s, as researchers and companies began to explore the potential applications of the technology. In the mid-2010s, blockchain entered the Peak of Inflated Expectations, as hype around the technology’s potential reached a peak.
However, as the technology failed to meet the inflated expectations, it entered the Trough of Disillusionment in the late 2010s. In the 2020s, blockchain began to emerge from the trough and enter the Slope of Enlightenment, as the technology matured and its practical applications became clearer. Today, blockchain is considered to be on the Plateau of Productivity, as it is widely adopted and has a significant impact on society.
These examples illustrate how the Gartner Hype Cycle can be used to track the evolution of a technology over time and understand its current maturity and adoption level.
Conclusion
The Hype Cycle model is based on the idea that there is a predictable pattern of adoption that technologies follow as they mature. It includes five phases: Innovation Trigger, Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment, and Plateau of Productivity. In addition to the five phases, the Hype Cycle model also includes a “Trigger Event” for each technology or trend, which is the event that initiates the cycle, and a “Benefit Rating” for each technology or trend, which is a measure of the potential societal or business impact of the technology.
You may leave a comment and let me know if I missed any important points, as well as share your thoughts and opinions on the subject.